Home Price Growth May Be Picking Up: What It Means for Buyers and Sellers

After more than a year of headlines talking about how home prices are going to crash, the latest data shows that price growth may be starting to pick back up again. And depending on whether you’re buying or selling, that shift means something different for you.

Home Price Growth May Be Starting to Pick Up

For the past couple of years, home price growth has been moderating, cooling from around 7% in mid-2024, according to Redfin (see graph below). But look at the right side of that graph. The pace of that growth appears to have hit its low point and started to turn.

While a couple months of data doesn’t necessarily mean this will be a lasting trend, there are some other signs that this could continue.

Fewer Housing Markets Are Seeing Home Price Declines

For example, fewer markets are seeing prices decline. According to ResiClub and Zillow, about 36% of the 300 largest housing markets had falling prices as of the middle of last year. Since the start of this year, that share has been shrinking. Now? Only 23% are experiencing those mild dips (see graph below):

When fewer markets see prices falling, that means more markets are seeing prices rise again.

Housing Market Forecasts Suggest Modest Home Price Growth

And forecasts suggest this shift has room to run. On average, experts project home prices will rise about 2.3% nationally this year. And for that to happen, price growth would have to pick up a bit in the second half of 2026.

Real Estate Is Local: Why National Home Price Trends Don't Tell the Whole Story

While it looks like national prices may be starting to pick back up a tiny bit, that doesn’t mean that’s what’s happening in your neighborhood.

National home prices are really just an average of hundreds of local markets. Some are climbing faster. Others are still cooling. But one reason the national average may be looking up is that a growing number of metros may actually be net positive for prices this year.

Not long ago, the major metros were split about 50/50 – half seeing prices rise and half seeing them fall. Now, that balance looks like it’s starting to tip in a more positive direction. Just last month, more than half of the major metros saw prices go up, according to Redfin (see graph below):

As Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at Cotality, explains:

 

“. . . local markets continue to tell very different stories. Annual home price growth has changed little since the start of the year, but some markets, especially those supported by strong job and income growth in the West and more affordable Midwest markets, have seen notable acceleration in price gains.”

 

What Home Price Trends Mean for Buyers and Sellers

Home price headlines can be confusing because they don’t always tell the full picture. Lean on a local real estate agent to understand what's happening in the North County San Diego housing market and what these trends could mean for your plans.

That's one of the best ways to make informed decisions based on current local market conditions.

If you're buying: slower price growth has generally worked in your favor. You've had more room to negotiate and a budget you could plan around. If home price growth continues to pick up in your area, buying sooner could mean paying less than waiting until later this year.

If you own a home: you've been gaining equity all along, even while growth moderated. If growth keeps picking up, those gains could speed up, too. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), projects the typical homeowner will gain roughly $16,000 in housing wealth this year. And if you're thinking about selling, this shift is a good early sign for you. Just remember, the market is still pretty balanced and buyer-friendly in a lot of areas right now.

Bottom Line

Home price growth slowed significantly, and the latest housing market data suggests it may be starting to pick up again. Whether you're buying or selling a home in North County San Diego, understanding your local real estate market can help you make informed decisions.

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FAQ

Will home prices continue to rise in 2026?

Recent housing market data suggests home price growth may be starting to pick up after slowing over the past couple of years. However, a few months of data do not confirm a long-term trend. Several housing market forecasts project modest national home price growth during 2026, but home prices can vary significantly by local market.

Does slower home price growth mean home prices are falling?

Not necessarily. Slower home price growth means home prices are continuing to increase, but at a slower rate than before. A slowdown in home price growth is different from a decline in home prices. Recent national housing market data suggests home price growth may be starting to pick up, although more data is needed to confirm a long-term trend.

Should I buy or sell a home if home price growth is picking up?

The right time to buy or sell depends on your personal goals, financial situation, and local market conditions. If home price growth continues to pick up in your area, buyers may face higher prices over time, while homeowners could continue building equity. Because every market is different, it's important to evaluate current conditions before making a real estate decision.

About the Patricia Villanueva

Patricia Villanueva is a licensed real estate agent serving North County San Diego, helping home buyers, home sellers, and real estate investors navigate today's real estate market with practical guidance and local expertise. Whether you're buying your first home, selling a property, relocating, or investing in real estate, Patricia Villanueva provides personalized guidance, local market knowledge, and professional support throughout every step of the buying and selling process.

From home valuations and home pricing strategies to comparative market analysis, neighborhood insights, and local housing market trends, Patricia Villanueva helps clients make informed real estate decisions based on their individual goals and current market conditions.

If you're planning to buy a home, sell your home, or learn more about the North County San Diego real estate market, contact Patricia Villanueva to discuss your real estate goals and explore your available options.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial, legal, tax, or real estate advice. Housing market data and forecasts are subject to change, and real estate market conditions vary by location. Always consult qualified professionals before making real estate, financial, legal, or tax decisions.