There Are 4 Types of Housing Markets Right Now. Which One Are You In?

Today’s housing market splits into four distinct types. You’ve got cash buyers, buyers financing a purchase, owners who feel locked into a low rate, and builders with homes to sell. Which type you’re in changes how you should buy or sell. Ryan Serhant, CEO of SERHANT agrees:

 

“There is no longer a housing market . . . There are four Americas.”

 

Here’s what each looks like, and what it means for you.

Cash Buyers: About 1 in 4 Existing-Home Sales Are All-Cash

If you already own a home, you may be able to buy your next place in cash thanks to your equity. In fact, 26% of existing-home sales in July 2026 were all-cash, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). That's roughly 1 in 4 existing-home sales.

Data from Realtor.com shows most are at the very top and very bottom of the market by price point (see graph below):

For Buyers: If you’re able to buy in cash, an offer without a financing contingency may be appealing to some sellers. It may also allow for a faster closing timeline and provide additional negotiating flexibility.

For Sellers: A cash offer can mean less risk of the deal falling through, but that certainty sometimes comes with a lower number attached. Compare the whole picture before deciding it’s automatically your best offer.

Buyers Using Financing: Mortgage Rates and Seller Concessions

If you’re looking to take out a mortgage, the direction of mortgage rates remains an important consideration. Data from Fannie Mae shows nearly half of experts raised their long-term rate forecast this year (see graphs below):

That’s tough for homebuyers relying on a mortgage, especially first-time buyers. But it’s not all bad news.

While buyers may not be getting the lower rates they want, at least there’s help to be had if you ask sellers for what you really need. Redfin data shows almost half of May sales included a concession like a rate buydown or closing-cost credit from the homeowner.

For Buyers: Rather than focusing only on where mortgage rates may go next, consider whether negotiating a seller concession could help with certain eligible costs. Talk with your lender or loan professional about whether options such as a rate buydown may make sense for your specific financing situation.

For Sellers: Expect to negotiate. Building a potential concession into your pricing strategy from the start could help get a deal done.

Rate-Locked Homeowners: 2 in 3 Mortgages Have a Rate Below 5%

If you own a home already, you might not want to move and take on a higher rate than the one you’ve got. That’s the case for a lot of people. About 2 in 3 outstanding mortgages have a rate below 5%, according to Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) data (see graph below).

Some homeowners may hesitate to sell because moving could mean giving up a lower existing mortgage rate and financing their next home at a higher rate. This is commonly referred to as the mortgage rate lock-in effect.

And according to Fannie Mae data, most experts think that lock-in will stick around another 3-5 years. That means this will continue to be a factor in how many homes come up for sale.

For Buyers: Rate lock-in can affect how many homeowners choose to list their homes. Sellers who do list may have specific reasons for moving, but motivation and negotiating flexibility will vary by seller and property.

For Sellers: Consider what your equity may allow you to do before ruling out a move. If you have an FHA or VA loan, ask your loan servicer whether your existing loan may be assumable and what requirements would apply.

Homebuilders: New Construction Inventory and Buyer Incentives

If you’re looking at new construction, this might be your moment. According to July 2026 U.S. Census Bureau data, builders have more unsold new homes sitting around than usual, enough that it would take nearly 10 months to sell them all at the current pace (well above the normal 4-6 months pace). That level of inventory may contribute to builders offering incentives such as price reductions or rate buydowns.

For Buyers: New construction may offer opportunities to negotiate or take advantage of builder incentives. Compare the entire incentive package—not just the purchase price—and consider having your own real estate agent represent your interests.

For Sellers: Highlight features your existing home may offer compared with some new construction, such as mature landscaping, an established neighborhood, or the ability to move in sooner.

What the 4 Housing Markets Mean for Buyers and Sellers

Four different housing markets are operating at the same time: cash buyers, financed buyers, rate-locked homeowners, and builders. Each comes with different considerations, so the right strategy depends on your individual situation, goals, and local market conditions.

If you’re thinking about buying or selling a home in North San Diego County, including Vista, Oceanside, San Marcos, Escondido, Fallbrook, Bonsall, or Carlsbad, understanding how these broader housing trends relate to the local real estate market can help you make a more informed decision.

Whether you’re considering selling your current home, searching for your next property, comparing your options, or simply keeping an eye on the market, these resources can help you explore your next steps.

Find out what your home may be worth with my Home Value tool, explore available properties with Home Search, review current local housing trends with the Market Snapshot, or explore estimated mortgage payments using the Mortgage Calculator.

Every real estate situation is different. If you’d like to discuss buying or selling a home in North San Diego County and how today’s market may affect your plans, Contact Me for a personalized conversation.

Frequently Asked Questions About Today’s Housing Market

What are the four types of housing markets happening right now?

Today’s housing market can be viewed through four distinct groups: cash buyers, buyers using mortgage financing, homeowners who feel locked into a lower mortgage rate, and homebuilders selling new construction.

Cash buyers represent a significant share of the market. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), 26% of existing-home sales in July 2026 were all-cash—roughly 1 in 4 sales.

Each group faces different considerations, which is why buying or selling strategies can vary depending on your individual situation and local market conditions.

What should I consider when buying a home with a mortgage?

When buying a home with a mortgage, consider more than just the purchase price. Mortgage rates, estimated monthly payments, closing costs, and potential seller concessions can all affect the overall cost of purchasing a home.

Depending on the transaction, buyers may be able to negotiate seller concessions toward certain eligible costs. Buyers should consult with their lender or loan professional to understand available financing options, including whether a rate buydown may be available and how it could affect their specific loan and monthly payment.

Why are homeowners with low mortgage rates reluctant to sell?

Some homeowners may hesitate to sell because moving could mean giving up a lower existing mortgage rate and financing their next home at a higher rate. This is commonly referred to as the mortgage rate lock-in effect.

However, a mortgage rate is only one consideration when deciding whether to move. Home equity, housing needs, available inventory, and local market conditions can also influence a homeowner’s decision.

About North San Diego County Real Estate Agent Patricia Villanueva

Patricia Villanueva is a North San Diego County real estate agent with eXp Realty, helping home buyers and sellers navigate the local real estate market. Patricia Villanueva serves clients throughout Vista, Oceanside, San Marcos, Escondido, Fallbrook, Bonsall, Carlsbad, and surrounding North San Diego County communities.

Whether you're buying a home, selling a home, searching for your next property, or considering what your home may be worth, Patricia Villanueva provides local market knowledge, personalized real estate guidance, and strategies tailored to each client's goals and circumstances.

For buyers, Patricia Villanueva assists with home searches, property tours, offer preparation and negotiation, and navigating the home-buying process. For homeowners and sellers, services include home-selling strategies, pricing strategy and comparative market analysis, property marketing, offer evaluation, and guidance throughout the real estate transaction.

If you're looking for a real estate agent in North San Diego County to help you buy or sell a home, Contact Patricia Villanueva to discuss your real estate goals.

Disclaimer: This content is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as legal, tax, financial, lending, or appraisal advice. Real estate market conditions, property values, mortgage rates, loan programs, seller concessions, builder incentives, and other information may vary by location, property, transaction, lender, and over time. Buyers should consult with a qualified lender or mortgage professional regarding financing options and loan eligibility. For legal, tax, or financial advice, consult an appropriate qualified professional. Real estate information and statistics are based on sources believed to be reliable but are subject to change and are not guaranteed.